The numbers this week tell a story in two halves. On one side: consumer confidence metrics that are battered but not broken, personal financial assessments that are holding roughly steady, and small business owners who remain broadly optimistic. On the other: inflation expectations at seven-month highs, tariff costs finally hitting store shelves, credit card balances surging, and a public that has decided who to blame.
The gap between "I'm managing" and "the country is in trouble" has never been wider in recent polling. That disconnect won't hold forever.
The Blame Has Landed
For months, the political question around inflation was whether the public would assign blame or treat it as ambient misery. That question is now answered. A UMass Amherst tracking poll released this week finds a majority of Americans pointing directly at the president for rising prices — and his net approval on cost of living has cratered to -38.
The timing is brutal. Gas prices have climbed nearly 40% since late February, driven by the Iran conflict. Liberation Day tariffs from April 2025 and the October government shutdown over healthcare costs were the sharpest single-event approval drops the tracker has recorded. Each hit landed on the same bruise.
CNN/SSRS tells the same story from a different angle: 65% say Trump's policies have worsened the economy — up 10 points since January and higher than any reading Biden received during his entire term. Three-quarters now rate the economy as in poor shape. Six in ten expect it to stay that way a year from now.
When more than a quarter of Republicans tell CNN they disapprove of how the president is handling the economy, that's not opposition noise. That's structural erosion.
The Tariff Bill Comes Due
The abstract has become concrete. KPMG's survey of 300 C-suite executives at companies with $1 billion or more in revenue documents the mechanism: the share of firms passing more than half of tariff costs to consumers has jumped from 13% to 34% since May 2025. And 55% plan further price increases of up to 15% within six months.
Translation: the tariff price shock isn't peaking. It's accelerating.
Consumers know it. The Economist/YouGov finds 71% expect tariffs to raise the prices they pay — including 57% of Trump's own 2024 voters. Support for reducing tariffs outpaces support for increasing them by more than two to one (41% to 18%).
UMass Amherst puts the political damage in starker terms: 64% give Trump a negative grade on tariffs specifically — what the pollsters called "a public relations disaster" for a signature policy. And the working-class voters these policies were designed to reassure? Their approval has dropped roughly 20 points since April 2025.
This week, Poll Vault tracked 20 economy polls — explore them all →
The Squeeze Is Real
The macro anxiety isn't hypothetical. It's showing up in household balance sheets.
A Debt.com survey finds 55% of Americans now use credit cards to cover basic living expenses — groceries, rent, utilities. Not discretionary purchases. Essentials. Those carrying balances above $10,000 jumped from 23% to 29% year over year, the largest increase in three years. And 41% report APRs above 21%, up from 33% a year ago.
The generational divide is sharp: 66% of Millennials and 62% of Gen X say they rely on credit cards to get through the month, compared with far lower shares among Boomers. Millennials are three times more likely than Boomers to have maxed out a card (42% vs. 14%).
Trump's proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap polls cautiously well — 36% call it realistic and beneficial, 35% say it would meaningfully reduce their debt — but 24% call it unrealistic. Consumers want relief. They're just not sure they'll get it.
The Vibes Gap
Buried in this week's data is one genuinely interesting wrinkle: Americans feel worse about the country than they feel about themselves.
The Conference Board captures it precisely. The Present Situation Index — how consumers rate conditions right now — climbed 4.6 points in March. More people said business conditions were "good." Fewer said "bad." But the Expectations Index, measuring where consumers think things are headed, fell to 70.9 — below the threshold historically associated with recession risk.
Inflation expectations hit their highest level since August 2025. The share expecting higher interest rates surged from 35% to 42%. Foreign travel plans collapsed. Plans for big-ticket purchases shifted hard toward "no."
Florida's consumer confidence shows the same pattern in miniature: personal financial views ticked up, while views of the national economy and willingness to buy appliances, furniture, and other big items dropped across every demographic group.
People are saying: I'm okay today. I don't think I will be tomorrow.
That kind of sentiment is a leading indicator. When consumers feel personally stable but economically anxious, they cut discretionary spending first — travel, major purchases, dining out. It's a defensive crouch, not a crisis. But if sustained, it creates the conditions for the downturn it fears.
Kitchen Tables and Gas Pumps
- ⛽ Gas-pump anxiety is near-universal. Fox News finds 80% worried about gas prices and 86% about inflation. Trump's economy approval hit 31% in CNN's data — described as his all-time low in that survey. UMass Amherst adds that 79% expect the Iran war to push oil prices higher.
- 🏠 Maryland hits a wall. UMBC finds 76% of Marylanders rate state economic conditions as poor or fair — the worst in four survey waves. Wrong-track sentiment jumped 20 points in 18 months. Tax increases and fiscal management are Gov. Moore's top negatives.
- 🗳️ Alabama Republicans agree: it's the economy. The Alabama Poll finds 79% of likely GOP primary voters name an economic issue as the state's top problem — the highest in the poll's history. Groceries (50%), utilities (36%), and healthcare (28%) lead the personal-cost list.
- 📈 Small business bucks the trend. SBE Council/TechnoMetrica finds 66% of small business employers rate the business environment as good or excellent, with 86% confident about 2026. Tax relief from the One Big Beautiful Bill gets a near-even split: 48% say it helped, 19% say it hurt.
Next Week
- Tariff price pass-through in real time. With KPMG showing 55% of large firms planning further increases, watch for April CPI expectations and any consumer-facing company earnings calls that quantify the hit.
- Gas price trajectory. The Iran conflict's oil price shock has been the accelerant on an already-smoldering economy story. If prices stabilize, the political heat may vent slightly. If they don't, the CNN/SSRS numbers get worse.
- Working-class erosion. The UMass Amherst finding — a ~20-point working-class approval drop — is the most politically dangerous data point this week. Whether that trend stabilizes or deepens will shape the midterm landscape.
- Credit card legislation. The 10% APR cap polls well enough to stay in the conversation. Watch whether it gets a serious legislative vehicle or remains a talking point.
What Else We Tracked This Week
- Affordability Tops Voter Concerns in FL-28, Fueling Anti-Incumbent Sentiment — EDGE Communications
- Financial Literacy Gap Leaves Most Americans Underprepared and More Stressed — Corebridge Financial
- Slim Michigan Majority Backs $50B Belle Isle Economic Zone After Learning the Details — Mitchell Research
- Tech Workers Report Outsourced Staff Make Up 44% of Employer Workforces — Howdy
- Few Americans Ready to Accept AI as Their Boss at Work — Quinnipiac University
- Florida Consumer Confidence Posts First 2026 Decline as Spending Intentions Fall — University of Florida
Until next time, Alex Lundry
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