This week my own son graduates from high school. So I did what any polling nerd does when a milestone hits home: I went looking for what the data says about the class walking across stages right now — the new high school grads, the new college grads, and the twentysomethings a few years out who are living the answer to "what happens next."
This is not a defeated generation, but a clear-eyed one. Young Americans are remarkably confident in themselves while also being remarkably skeptical of nearly every system they're inheriting — school, government, the housing market, the job market. They still believe a degree pays off. They just no longer believe the institutions around it have their backs. That gap is the story of this graduating class.
On Their Way, and Underprepared
We'll start with the most honest survey of the bunch. The Harris Poll talked to 5,000 Gen Z adults who finished high school in the last decade — the class-of-2015-through-2025 cohort — and the result is a study in held contradictions.
Better than half (53%) say their high school did not prepare them for the rigors of college-level work — yet 75% say they're headed in the right direction anyway. Sit with that for a second: a generation that rates its own training as inadequate and its own trajectory as sound, at the same time.
Read that as denial if you want. I read it as resilience with a to-do list. These grads aren't telling pollsters the system worked. They're telling pollsters they intend to make it work anyway — which is a very different, and frankly more useful, kind of optimism.
They've Stopped Betting on Better
Here's the backdrop that confidence is fighting against. The Harvard Youth Poll (n=2,018, ages 18–29) found trust in the federal government at a recorded low of 15% — just 15% of young Americans say Washington does the right thing most of the time. Sixty-eight percent say elected officials are in it for selfish reasons.
And the pessimism isn't confined to politics — it reaches their own futures. In 2021, young Americans expecting to be better off than their parents outnumbered the pessimists by a net +21 points. Today that margin has collapsed to +3.
Young Americans lean Democratic and say they intend to vote — but their participation is increasingly conditional on a system they no longer trust.
— Due Data
That conditional turnout is the part both parties should be sweating. The generic congressional ballot among young voters runs 45% Democratic to 26% Republican, and the Yale Youth Poll likewise shows Gen Z swinging hard left with double-digit Democratic leads. But here's the wrinkle: the Harris data shows recent grads identifying as 43% Independent, with Democrats and Republicans tied at 24% each. Independent in identity, Democratic at the ballot, and trusting of neither — that's not a base, that's a jump ball. Whoever credibly tackles housing and job preparation wins a genuine swing constituency.
The Receipts Don't Add Up
If you want to understand the anxiety underneath the optimism, follow the money.
Clever Real Estate asked college students what they expect to earn a year out of school: an average of $80K. Actual average starting salary: $56K. That's a $24,000 reality gap — students projecting 42% more income than the market will hand them. And even their inflated numbers leave them gloomy: 57% don't think their first job will earn enough to buy a home.
So they're doing the math and not loving the answer. Nearly half (46%) of those students now say a degree isn't worth going into debt for, and 35% went so far as to call college a scam.
And the squeeze isn't only the tuition bill — it's everyday cash. Trellis Strategies surveyed 65,000 undergrads and found 54% couldn't lay hands on $500 for an emergency, and 65% ran out of money at least once this year. WalletHub found loan debt and joblessness are students' top two post-graduation fears — and 52% say their school isn't doing nearly enough to teach them basic financial literacy.
The pressure is now strong enough to reroute lives before they start. EAB found that among high school grads who skipped college, 67% cited cost of living as the reason — up from 51% just a year earlier. Notably, the share saying they simply wanted "time off first" fell hard. This isn't a gap-year vibe shift. It's financial triage.
The constructive read here: every one of these is a solvable number. Financial-literacy programming, transparent salary data, loan reform — these are policy problems with policy answers, and this cohort is practically begging institutions to show up.
Picking a Major Against the Machine
The other force reshaping this class in real time is AI — and not in the way the press releases promise.
Lumina Foundation and Gallup found that 47% of college students have seriously considered switching majors because of AI's impact on the job market — and 16% have already done it. The anxiety concentrates exactly where you'd expect: 70% of technology majors have weighed a switch. There's also a striking gender split, with 60% of men contemplating a change versus 38% of women.
The vibe is uncertainty, not excitement. Among enrolled students in the EAB survey, half said they feel uncertain about AI's effect on their careers; only 13% felt optimistic. And Heatmap News found 18-to-34-year-olds are the most AI-pessimistic age group in the country — 68% say AI will make society worse, rising to 73% among young women.
Now the twist that should reframe the whole "AI is coming for entry-level jobs" panic. Atlassian found that the youngest tech workers (21–24) are 1.5x more likely than their elders to use AI daily — and 92% of undergrads now use AI in some form, up from 66% a year ago. New grads aren't the workers AI makes redundant. They're the most AI-fluent talent entering the building.
The catch: 40% of those young workers hide their AI use from managers, versus 29% of older workers. Companies trimming junior hiring on the theory that AI replaces entry-level talent have it backwards — they're cutting their fastest AI adopters and then wondering why adoption stalls.
They Still Want In — On New Terms
But here is why I'm actually optimistic for my son's cohort. Young people haven't given up on education. They're rewriting the spec.
The College Savings Foundation found 74% of high schoolers now see career and technical programs, certificates, and apprenticeships as roughly equal in value to a four-year degree. Most still plan to go to college — but 86% intend to work while enrolled, and 89% want academic credit for real-world work experience. They're not anti-college. They're anti-impractical.
And it's not purely transactional. Morning Consult found that as many students cite personal growth, identity, and giving back as cite career outcomes for why they're in school. The experiences that most predict student wellbeing — mentorship and internships — are valued by roughly four in five students, but reach fewer than half. Mentored students scored a 7.12 on wellbeing versus 6.62 without. The demand signal is loud; the supply isn't there.
Educators see it too. The EdWeek Research Center found 58% report rising student demand for work-based learning, but 54% say their institutions invest less in it than in traditional academics. The barrier, per educators, isn't student interest — it's funding. 77% still expect work-based learning to grow.
That's the actionable read of this entire edition: a generation is telling colleges exactly what it wants — applied, affordable, work-integrated, mentored — and the institutions that listen will win the next decade of enrollment.
This week Poll Vault tracked dozens of surveys on young Americans — see them all →
Pomp and Circumstantial Evidence
📵 91% of college students self-censor at least some of the time, per FIRE — and 1 in 3 now thinks violence can sometimes be justified to stop a speaker, up 70% since 2022. Free expression on campus is getting quieter and angrier at the same time.
🧠 1 in 5 teens and young adults now turn to AI chatbots for mental health advice (RAND) — a quiet, fast-moving shift in where this generation goes when it's struggling.
🏙️ 1 in 4 young Boston-area residents plan to leave within five years, citing cost — a reminder that the affordability squeeze is also a brain-drain problem for expensive metros.
📚 Harvard undergrads report using AI for a third of their homework, many flouting course rules — the policy vacuum at the top of higher ed in one stat.
After the Tassel Turns
- The youth turnout question. Young voters lean Democratic but distrust the system and identify as Independent. Whether that translates into 2026 turnout — or stays home in protest — is the single biggest variable hanging over the midterm map.
- Entry-level hiring vs. AI fluency. If firms keep cutting junior roles while new grads are the most AI-fluent hires available, expect that contradiction to surface in next year's workforce data.
- Completion, not just enrollment. With borrowing anxiety high and four-year completion under half among recent grads, the metric that matters is who finishes — watch institutions get judged on outcomes, not admits.
- Work-based learning funding. Demand is outrunning investment. The colleges that close that gap first will have a real recruiting edge.
What Else We Tracked This Week
- Most Students Still See College Tuition as Worth It, Despite Rising Debt — WalletHub
- Two-Thirds of Gen Z Students Use TikTok to Hunt for Scholarships, But Scams Abound — Sallie / Fractl
- Nearly Half of Jewish Students Report Campus Antisemitism, But Other Groups Also Face Prejudice — Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies
- Americans Talk to Neighbors Far Less Than a Decade Ago, With Young Adults Leading the Retreat — Ipsos
- UK Students Fear AI Job Wipeout More Than the General Public Does — King's College London
- College Educators See Rising Student Demand for Work-Based Learning But Cite Funding Gaps — EdWeek Research Center
To the class of 2026 — and to one graduate in particular, who happens to share my last name — you've got every reason to be skeptical of the systems you're inheriting, and every reason to bet on yourselves. The data says you already are.
Until next time,
Alex Lundry
Due Data is powered by Poll Vault. Get the full data behind every poll mentioned above.
Want the full data behind every poll mentioned above?
Create free account →