As Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." It's good advice for the days before an election.
You won't find race calls or seat counts in this edition. Horse-race coverage is a crowded field, and it's in good hands: Nate Silver and the Cook Political Report will carry you through Tuesday night and well beyond, and if you'd rather see what people will bet, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have odds on nearly every race. Due Data has a different job. Each week I go looking for good public polling that digs a step deeper than the headline numbers.
So yes, we'll start where everyone starts, with the generic ballot, and yes, the economy is the top issue. You knew that already. The more useful work is one level down. Which part of the economy? Why is the blame landing on Republicans when four years ago it landed on Democrats? What else is moving votes underneath the headline? And how much do voters trust that their ballots will be counted?
Eight Points, Give or Take
The national polling averages give Democrats a lead of about 8 to 9 points on the generic ballot, the question that asks which party you'd vote for in your House race. RealClearPolitics says Democrats are on track for their biggest national House win since Obama's 2008 landslide. The final NBC News poll, out this morning, has Democrats ahead 52% to 45% among registered voters, and Big Data Poll has them up 52% to 40%, and 58% to 37% among people who've already voted. The other recent polls cluster around those: Fox News has Democrats ahead 54% to 45% among registered voters, CNBC 52% to 45%, Echelon Insights 50% to 45% among likely voters, and Change Research 50% to 39%, with 12% undecided.
Part of the spread between those numbers comes from how each pollster decides who's going to vote. Fox's 9-point lead among registered voters becomes 6 points among voters who say they're certain to vote. NBC's moves the other way: 7 points among registered voters, 12 among the most engaged.
There's one real reason for caution, and Scott Clement laid it out in a piece for The Washington Post this week. In a Post–Schar School poll of Kansas, Republicans just didn't want to talk.
Weighting couldn't fully fix it. Even after the adjustments, respondents said they'd voted for Trump by 7 points in a state he won by 16. The Post said so plainly and published anyway, which is exactly the kind of transparency we should demand of pollsters. Maybe those missing Republicans are demoralized and will stay home. Maybe they'll vote Tuesday regardless. Nobody knows yet.
But there is reason to be optimistic about this year's polls. Pollsters' big misses came when Trump was on the ballot: they underestimated him by as much as 3 to 5 points in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In the 2018 and 2022 midterms, with Trump off the ballot, the polls did well and didn't lean consistently either way. He isn't on the ballot Tuesday. Still, keep two pictures in mind: the 8-point average, and a discounted version where the polls miss the way they did in the Trump years. Knock 3 to 5 points off and Democrats still lead by about 3 to 5, a clear win with a lot less margin to spare.
The Price Tag Changed Hands
If you want one number to explain this election, use this one.
In AP-NORC's polling, 65% of Americans say higher-than-usual prices are a result of Trump's policies. At the same point before the 2022 midterms, 44% said that about Biden's. Inflation was worse in 2022. The blame is bigger now.
And the doubts reach into Trump's own party. 52% of Republicans tell AP-NORC that his handling of the cost of living has been worse than they expected. In Harris Poll tracking for The Guardian, the share of Republicans optimistic about the economy fell from 49% in February to 28%.
Three other things are working against Republicans.
The intensity is lopsided. Trump's disapproval hit 60% in NBC's final poll, the highest of either of his terms in their polling. Only 19% strongly approve of Trump in Napolitan News polling, and 46% strongly disapprove, the widest gap in its tracking. In PRRI's survey, 46% of Democrats are very excited to vote, against 31% of Republicans. And in Marist's polling, 45% call their vote a vote against Trump, while 24% call it a vote for him.
The parties are talking about different things. A Winston Group survey, from a Republican firm, asked voters what they'd heard from each party. For Republicans, the top answer was the SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register and photo ID to vote (19%). For Democrats, it was inflation and the cost of living (30%). Asked to pick between the two messages, voters chose inflation by about 3 to 1.
The regret is gendered, and it's not turning into Democratic votes. Navigator Research finds 22% of moms who voted for Trump regret it, compared with 13% of dads. On immigration, moms disapprove of Trump 60% to 35%, while dads approve 58% to 41%. But in Navigator's focus groups with regretful suburban moms, the regret came out as ambivalence about voting, not enthusiasm for the other party.
That last point holds for the whole electorate. In CBS News/YouGov polling, 57% say the Democratic Party doesn't have a clear vision for the future, and 56% say Republicans don't have an agreed-upon agenda. Voters are mostly voting against the party in power, and that matters for what comes after Tuesday.
Democrats are winning this election by not being the party in charge.
The Gas Tank Economy
Inflation hasn't been this big a voting issue in years. But now 36% of registered voters name inflation and prices as their top issue in Economist/YouGov polling, the highest since YouGov started asking in July 2022. In Pew's survey, 84% call the economy very important to their vote, and high among supporters of both parties' candidates (88% of Democrats' supporters, 82% of Republicans'). It's the one issue the two sides agree matters.
But when voters say "the economy," they mostly mean what they pay at the pump and the checkout line. The share of Americans "very concerned" about gas and energy prices went from 43% in January to 74% in October, according to Pew. Food is close behind at 73%, then healthcare at 69% and housing at 66%. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose in October, the month gas prices eased.
That's how the Iran war shows up in this election. Only 2% of Americans named the war as their top voting issue in a summer Chicago Council survey. But 64% told CBS News the war is driving oil and gas prices much higher. The war reaches voters through the price of a gallon.
Tariffs land the same way. In a Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of 4,150 voters, 74% say Trump's tariffs have raised the prices of things they buy, including 66% of Republicans, and 75% say tariffs will matter to their vote.
On who's trusted to fix it, Democrats lead on inflation 48% to 38% (Change Research) and on the economy 37% to 28% (Washington Post/ABC). In that Post/ABC poll, about a third of Americans don't pick either party on the economy. And NBC's final poll is a useful check: Democrats lead by just 1 point on inflation there, and Republicans by 2 on the economy. Voters are blaming the party in power for prices without much confidence the other party will lower them.
Poll Vault tracked 86 national election and democracy polls since October 1. See them all →
The Undercard
Cost of living is the main event. Here's what's on the rest of the card.
Corruption. In Change Research's polling, independents rank corruption (46%) right alongside inflation (44%) as a top issue, and Democrats lead on it 44% to 36%. A Deseret News/Morning Consult survey found the top corruption worry is covering up wrongdoing (41%), and 38% of voters see Republican candidates as generally corrupt, against 29% for Democratic candidates. Not every poll agrees on who's trusted to fix it: NBC's final poll has Republicans up 5 on corruption, with 28% trusting neither party.
Democracy. It's the No. 2 issue in Pew's survey, with 73% calling it very important. It matters more to Democratic voters (85%), but still to 69% of Republican voters.
Healthcare. 77% of voters call it important in Gallup's issue list, second only to the economy, and Democrats lead on it 60% to 36% in New York Times/Siena polling. (I covered this one last week.)
Immigration. I covered this in depth two weeks ago, so here's just where it stands. This was the Republicans' best issue, and it's now a coin flip. Change Research has Republicans ahead 45% to 43%, KFF has them up 38% to 34%, and Times/Siena had Democrats ahead in September. KFF also finds only 35% of voters call immigration extremely important for candidates to discuss, against 62% for the cost of living. Rural voters rate it higher, at 45%.
Data centers. They rank 10th in Gallup's list, but the intensity is uneven: 42% of Democrats call AI data center construction extremely important to their vote, compared with 16% of Republicans. About three dozen local data center measures are on ballots Tuesday, and I'll have more on those next week.
And a few things that, for all the attention they get, aren't driving many votes. Gender identity policy came in last of every issue CNN tested, though 46% still call it extremely or very important. AI ranks 11th of Pew's 16 issues at 44%. And prescription drug prices, which both parties love to talk about, were the top priority of just 2% of battleground voters in a GrayHouse survey. Voters hold views on all three, and still rank them low. Add election rules to that list: the SAVE America Act is what voters hear most from Republicans, as noted above, but given the choice, they'd rather hear about inflation by about 3 to 1.
Will It Count?
Fewer than half of Americans expect a clean election. 48% expect the midterms to be free and democratic in a new Leger poll, 25% don't, and independents are lowest at 38%. UC San Diego's survey of 5,016 Americans has it at 49%. In a NewsNation poll, 46% of likely voters think all the votes will be counted accurately.
For most of the past decade, doubt about the count was a Republican story. Going into Tuesday, it belongs to both parties.
In 2022, Democrats were 35 points more confident than Republicans in the nationwide vote count, and in 2024 they were 30 points more confident. This fall, the Bipartisan Policy Center and Morning Consult find the two parties statistically tied on confidence that their own and their local votes will be counted. Republicans got more confident. Democrats got less. In NORC/USAFacts polling, Democrats' trust in official certifications of the results fell from 65% to 44%, and trust overall hit a new low of 34%. UC San Diego found confidence in an accurate count down for everyone since 2024: from 77% to 63% among Democrats, 82% to 58% among Republicans, and 73% to 49% among independents.
The two parties are worried about different things. Republicans are focused on who's voting: 52% distrust that noncitizens are kept from voting in the UC San Diego poll, against 12% of Democrats. Mail ballots are a soft spot too: in New Jersey, Rutgers-Eagleton finds 74% confident that in-person ballots will be counted accurately, and 59% for mail ballots. Democrats are focused on who's watching: 75% of Democrats worry about federal law enforcement such as ICE showing up in their communities during the election, against 39% of Republicans, according to BPC. In a survey for the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, a civil rights coalition, 62% of likely voters worry about ICE intimidating voters at the polls, and 65% fear the federal government could declare an emergency to stop the elections.
There's one fear the two sides share. 77% of voters are concerned about AI being used to spread disinformation ahead of the midterms, the top concern for Democrats and Republicans alike in the BPC poll.
None of this means people are giving up on voting, and the rest of the data is more reassuring. 68% say they'd accept the results if their party lost, including 76% of Republicans and 73% of Democrats, per Leger. In the NewsNation poll, worries about the count make 22% of likely voters more likely to vote and just 3% less likely (nearly half didn't answer). And in UC Davis's annual survey of 7,752 Americans, 51 of 53 measures of support for, and expectations of, political violence fell between 2025 and 2026.
People are worried about the count, and they're showing up anyway.
Tuesday Night
- Was the average right? If the national House vote lands near 8 points, the polls held up. If it comes in closer to the tighter likely-voter readings (5 to 6 points) or narrower still, the Kansas problem was bigger than one state.
- Data center bans. About three dozen local measures would limit, ban or weigh in on data centers Tuesday. That's next week's edition.
- A clean count. Fewer than half of Americans expect one. A smooth Election Day would be the best answer to those numbers, and I'll be watching for the first post-election confidence polls.
What Else We Tracked
- Democrats Lead Latino House Vote by 27 Points as Majority Call Their Vote Anti-Trump — Pew Research Center
- Young Americans' Voting Intentions Rise Even as Many Feel Officials Ignore Them — UNICEF USA / The Harris Poll
- Voters in Both Parties Say Politics Lacks Dignity and Want Leaders Who Show It — National Governors Association / RMG Research
- Over 323,000 Transgender Voters May Face Ballot Barriers Under State Voter ID Laws — Williams Institute
- 79% of Voters Back Earned Citizenship Path, Including 64% of Republicans — Wave Polling and Research
- Campaign Finance Reform Could Be a Sleeper Issue for Young Midterm Voters — American Promise / SocialSphere
Until next time,
Alex Lundry
Due Data is powered by Poll Vault. Get the full data behind every poll mentioned above.
Want the full data behind every poll mentioned above?
Create free account →